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Analysis of the match between Newcastle United and Aston Villa
There are plenty of reasons to believe that Newcastle will collect all three points at home in this match. First of all, the North East side have been extremely solid at St James’ Park, going eight consecutive Premier League home games unbeaten (six wins, two draws). Notably, Newcastle began 2026 in impressive fashion with back-to-back home victories over Crystal Palace and Leeds.
Should they continue their winning run, the Magpies would win their first two home league games in a calendar year for the first time since 2012. Interestingly, the third match on that occasion was also against Aston Villa. Moreover, home ground has long been the platform for Newcastle’s attacking firepower.
Statistics show that over the past two seasons, only Manchester City (70 goals) and Brentford (63) have scored more home goals in the Premier League than Newcastle (62). The hosts have also scored at least two goals in each of their last eight home league games — a feat they last surpassed during the 1931/32 season, when they achieved nine consecutive home matches with two or more goals.
In addition, Newcastle have proven competitive against top-three sides, losing just two of their last nine such encounters (four wins, three draws). Eddie Howe himself has recorded 12 victories against top-three teams during his managerial career (four with Bournemouth and eight with Newcastle), second only to Sam Allardyce (13) among English managers.
That said, Aston Villa should not be underestimated. This season, only Arsenal (21 points) have collected more away points in the Premier League than Villa (18). Their average of 1.64 points per away game in the 2025/26 campaign is also their best return since the 2009/10 season. Nevertheless, with home advantage and a favorable head-to-head record, Newcastle are still considered the stronger side and are likely to emerge victorious.
